Wyoming Elk Area 51 Type 4 Draw Odds
Elk hunt area 051, type 4 (antlerless elk, as WGFD labels it). Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.
Photo: National Park Service (GrandTetonNPS), public domain. Photo credits
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| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Hunt | Elk, Area 51 Type 4: antlerless elk |
| 2026 resident quota / first-choice applicants | 21 / 85 |
| 2026 resident simple odds (random draw) | 24.7% |
| 2026 nonresident regular quota: preference pool / random pool | 3 / 1 |
| 2026 nonresident special quota: preference pool / random pool | 2 / 0 |
| 2026 nonresident regular: preference cut | 2 pts (all drew at that level) |
| 2026 nonresident special: preference cut | no applicants |
Resident odds (2026 draw)
Wyoming residents draw elk licenses by random draw; preference points do not apply to residents for this species, so every resident applicant has the same chance. Simple odds are quota divided by first-choice applicants (second and third choices only pick up what is left).
| Draw year | Resident quota | 1st-choice applicants | Simple odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 42 | 128 | 32.8% |
| 2024 | 42 | 113 | 37.2% |
| 2025 | 42 | 116 | 36.2% |
| 2026 | 21 | 85 | 24.7% |
Resident outlook for 2027
Resident odds moved -2.7 percentage points a year on average from 2023 to 2026. If quota and demand follow that line, 2027 odds land near 22%.
Nonresident odds by preference point (2026 draw)
For nonresidents WGFD sets aside most licenses for a preference-point draw and the rest for a random draw that also takes everyone who missed in the point draw. The first odds column is WGFD's published first-choice success rate at each level; the second adds our simple random-draw estimate (random quota over first-choice random applicants). Rows marked < are party applications whose averaged points fall between two levels.
Regular license
| Your points | 1st-choice applicants | Preference draw odds (WGFD) | With random draw added (est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 3 | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| < 2 | 27 | 0.0% | 3.7% |
Forecast for 2027: About 2 preference points is where the draw is likely to cut off next year, so applicants at 3 or more are likely to draw on first choice. Point creep has averaged +0.35 points a year (2023 to 2026). Confidence: medium.
Special license (higher fee, separate quota)
| Your points | 1st-choice applicants | Preference draw odds (WGFD) | With random draw added (est.) |
|---|
Forecast for 2027: Not enough years of data for a forecast.
History
| Draw year | NR regular cut | NR special cut | NR random odds (regular) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 pts (6% drew at that level) | every applicant drew | 6.7% |
| 2024 | 1 pts (all drew at that level) | no applicants | 6.2% |
| 2025 | < 2 pts (all drew at that level) | no applicants | 3.8% |
| 2026 | 2 pts (all drew at that level) | no applicants | 3.7% |
Forecast method: how we forecast point creep. It is a trend line, not a promise.
Notes from TagCanyon
In 2026, 85 residents listed this hunt first for 21 resident licenses. The nonresident regular points-to-draw index went from 0.9 in 2023 to 2.0 in 2026. Nonresident elk applications close months before deer and antelope, so this hunt's reminder goes out in January.
Deadline
Nonresident elk: Jan 2 to Feb 2 on WGFD's current dates table (results in May). Confirm the 2027 close date on WGFD's page. Resident elk: Jan 2 to Jun 1. WGFD application dates.
Source: Wyoming Game and Fish Department (WGFD), 2026 Demand Reports (WGFD draw results and odds). Tables, forecasts and text are TagCanyon's own. Not affiliated with WGFD. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.
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