How We Forecast Point Creep

Point creep is the slow rise in the points it takes to draw a hunt, as more applicants bank points each year than licenses come open. Here is exactly how TagCanyon turns past draw results into a next-year estimate.

Step 1: one number per year

For each hunt, residency and year we take the level where the preference draw ran out (Colorado: CPW's own Drawn Out At figure; Wyoming: the lowest point level with success odds above zero in WGFD's nonresident preference report) and the share drawn at that level. We combine them into a points-to-draw index: the cut level plus the share left out. Drawing 20 points at 100% gives 20.0; drawing a third of the 20-point applicants gives 20.67.

Step 2: the trend

The forecast for the next draw is the latest index plus the average year-over-year change across the years we have (2023 to 2026, so up to three changes). Undersubscribed hunts count as zero. We never forecast below zero.

Step 3: reading it

The whole-number part is where the draw is likely to cut off; one point above it is where first-choice applicants have drawn in full under the trend. Confidence is low with fewer than three years or any single-year swing of more than three points.

What it leaves out

Quota changes, rule changes (for example new nonresident caps), applicants moving between hunts, and Colorado's hybrid draw share. Wyoming residents and Colorado hunts that draw without points get odds, not a points forecast. Every drawing is random within its rules, and the agency's published results are authoritative.

Montana

Montana's permit and B-license drawings are weighted lotteries (bonus points squared, plus one), so there is no cut level to trend. Montana pages instead project first-choice applicants and odds one year ahead and track average bonus points; see the Montana explainer.