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Bull elk with large antlers standing in golden sagebrush

Wyoming Elk Area 16 Type 1 Draw Odds

Elk hunt area 016, type 1 (any elk, as WGFD labels it). Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Photo: National Park Service (GrandTetonNPS) via Wikimedia Commons, public domain. Credits
FactValue
HuntElk, Area 16 Type 1: any elk
2026 resident quota / first-choice applicants207 / 2027
2026 resident simple odds (random draw)10.2%
2026 nonresident regular quota: preference pool / random pool11 / 3
2026 nonresident special quota: preference pool / random pool8 / 2
2026 nonresident regular: preference cut18 pts (30% drew at that level)
2026 nonresident special: preference cut17 pts (45% drew at that level)

Resident odds (2026 draw)

Wyoming residents draw elk licenses by random draw; preference points do not apply to residents for this species, so every resident applicant has the same chance. Simple odds are quota divided by first-choice applicants (second and third choices only pick up what is left).

Draw yearResident quota1st-choice applicantsSimple odds
20231871,84710.1%
20241891,81810.4%
20251831,9769.3%
20262072,02710.2%

Resident outlook for 2027

Resident odds moved +0.0 percentage points a year on average from 2023 to 2026. If quota and demand follow that line, 2027 odds land near 10%.

Nonresident odds by preference point (2026 draw)

For nonresidents WGFD sets aside most licenses for a preference-point draw and the rest for a random draw that also takes everyone who missed in the point draw. The first odds column is WGFD's published first-choice success rate at each level; the second adds our simple random-draw estimate (random quota over first-choice random applicants). Rows marked < are party applications whose averaged points fall between two levels.

Regular license

Your points1st-choice applicantsPreference draw odds (WGFD)With random draw added (est.)
205100.0%100.0%
193100.0%100.0%
181030.0%30.4%
< 185840.0%0.5%

Forecast for 2027: About 19 preference points is where the draw is likely to cut off next year, so applicants at 20 or more are likely to draw on first choice. Point creep has averaged +0.84 points a year (2023 to 2026). Confidence: medium.

Special license (higher fee, separate quota)

Your points1st-choice applicantsPreference draw odds (WGFD)With random draw added (est.)
191100.0%100.0%
182100.0%100.0%
171145.5%46.4%
< 171120.0%1.7%

Forecast for 2027: About 18 preference points is where the draw is likely to cut off next year, so applicants at 19 or more are likely to draw on first choice. Point creep has averaged +0.63 points a year (2023 to 2026). Confidence: medium.

History

Draw yearNR regular cutNR special cutNR random odds (regular)
202316 pts (83% drew at that level)15 pts (33% drew at that level)0.8%
2024< 17 pts (all drew at that level)14 pts (33% drew at that level)0.8%
2025< 18 pts (all drew at that level)16 pts (20% drew at that level)0.6%
202618 pts (30% drew at that level)17 pts (45% drew at that level)0.5%

Forecast method: how we forecast point creep. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 2,027 residents listed this hunt first for 207 resident licenses. The nonresident regular points-to-draw index went from 16.2 in 2023 to 18.7 in 2026. Nonresident elk applications close months before deer and antelope, so this hunt's reminder goes out in January.

Deadline

Nonresident elk: Jan 2 to Feb 2 on WGFD's current dates table (results in May). Confirm the 2027 close date on WGFD's page. Resident elk: Jan 2 to Jun 1. WGFD application dates.

Source: Wyoming Game and Fish Department (WGFD), 2026 Demand Reports (WGFD draw results and odds). Tables, forecasts and text are TagCanyon's own. Not affiliated with WGFD. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.