Mule deer buck with wide antlers grazing in grass on the National Elk Refuge, Wyoming

Wyoming Deer Area 40 Type 3 Draw Odds

Deer hunt area 040, type 3 (any white-tailed …, as WGFD labels it). Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Photo: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS Mountain Prairie), public domain. Photo credits

Fact	Value
Hunt	Deer, Area 40 Type 3: any white-tailed …
2026 resident quota / first-choice applicants	40 / 99
2026 resident simple odds (random draw)	40.4%
2026 nonresident regular quota: preference pool / random pool	6 / 1
2026 nonresident special quota: preference pool / random pool	3 / 1
2026 nonresident regular: preference cut	2 pts (33% drew at that level)
2026 nonresident special: preference cut	< 1 pts (67% drew at that level)

Resident odds (2026 draw)

Wyoming residents draw deer licenses by random draw; preference points do not apply to residents for this species, so every resident applicant has the same chance. Simple odds are quota divided by first-choice applicants (second and third choices only pick up what is left).

Draw year	Resident quota	1st-choice applicants	Simple odds
2023	40	79	50.6%
2024	40	86	46.5%
2025	40	113	35.4%
2026	40	99	40.4%

Resident outlook for 2027

Resident odds moved -3.4 percentage points a year on average from 2023 to 2026. If quota and demand follow that line, 2027 odds land near 37%.

Nonresident odds by preference point (2026 draw)

For nonresidents WGFD sets aside most licenses for a preference-point draw and the rest for a random draw that also takes everyone who missed in the point draw. The first odds column is WGFD's published first-choice success rate at each level; the second adds our simple random-draw estimate (random quota over first-choice random applicants). Rows marked < are party applications whose averaged points fall between two levels.

Regular license

Your points	1st-choice applicants	Preference draw odds (WGFD)	With random draw added (est.)
5	1	100.0%	100.0%
3	2	100.0%	100.0%
< 3	2	100.0%	100.0%
2	3	33.3%	36.7%
< 2	18	0.0%	5.0%

Forecast for 2027: About 3 preference points is where the draw is likely to cut off next year, so applicants at 4 or more are likely to draw on first choice. Point creep has averaged +0.72 points a year (2023 to 2026). Confidence: medium.

Special license (higher fee, separate quota)

Your points	1st-choice applicants	Preference draw odds (WGFD)	With random draw added (est.)
1	1	100.0%	—
< 1	3	66.7%	—

Forecast for 2027: About 1 preference points is where the draw is likely to cut off next year, so applicants at 2 or more are likely to draw on first choice. Point creep has averaged +0.41 points a year (2024 to 2026). Confidence: medium.

History

Draw year	NR regular cut	NR special cut	NR random odds (regular)
2023	0 pts (50% drew at that level)	no applicants	50.0%
2024	2 pts (all drew at that level)	every applicant drew	5.0%
2025	< 2 pts (all drew at that level)	0 pts (67% drew at that level)	4.3%
2026	2 pts (33% drew at that level)	< 1 pts (67% drew at that level)	5.0%

Forecast method: how we forecast point creep. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 99 residents listed this hunt first for 40 resident licenses. The nonresident regular points-to-draw index went from 0.5 in 2023 to 2.7 in 2026.

Deadline

Applications open Jan 2 and close Jun 1 on WGFD's current dates table (results in mid-June). Confirm the 2027 dates on WGFD's page. WGFD application dates.

Source: Wyoming Game and Fish Department (WGFD), 2026 Demand Reports (WGFD draw results and odds). Tables, forecasts and text are TagCanyon's own. Not affiliated with WGFD. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.