799-20 Elk Permit Draw Odds, Montana
Elk permit, district 799-20 (first and only), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.
Photo: National Park Service (GrandTetonNPS), public domain. Photo credits
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| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Drawing | Elk permit, district 799-20 (first and only) |
| 2026 total quota | 325 |
| 2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column) | 32 |
| 2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident | 49 / 32 |
| 2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident | 3,553 / 523 |
| 2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident | 249 / 27 |
| 2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident | 7.0% / 5.2% |
| 2026 total successful (all choices and pools) | 325 |
Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 337 | 1 | 0.3% |
| 1 | 2 | 673 | 12 | 1.8% |
| 2 | 5 | 559 | 14 | 2.5% |
| 3 | 10 | 484 | 20 | 4.1% |
| 4 | 17 | 392 | 28 | 7.1% |
| 5 | 26 | 330 | 24 | 7.3% |
| 6 | 37 | 262 | 32 | 12.2% |
| 7 | 50 | 143 | 21 | 14.7% |
| 8 | 65 | 100 | 19 | 19.0% |
| 9 | 82 | 59 | 16 | 27.1% |
| 10 | 101 | 38 | 11 | 28.9% |
| 11 | 122 | 30 | 7 | 23.3% |
| 12 | 145 | 17 | 9 | 52.9% |
| 13 | 170 | 15 | 7 | 46.7% |
| 14 | 197 | 12 | 7 | 58.3% |
| 15 | 226 | 11 | 7 | 63.6% |
| 16 | 257 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
| 17 | 290 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 18 | 325 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 19 | 362 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| 20 | 401 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% |
| 21 | 442 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 22 | 485 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 24 | 577 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Resident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+315 applicants a year), about 3,868 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 6%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 3.7 (+0.22 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.
Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 114 first-choice applicants, 44 drawn.
Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 33 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 1 | 2 | 81 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2 | 5 | 81 | 2 | 2.5% |
| 3 | 10 | 45 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 4 | 17 | 44 | 3 | 6.8% |
| 5 | 26 | 40 | 3 | 7.5% |
| 6 | 37 | 40 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 7 | 50 | 34 | 4 | 11.8% |
| 8 | 65 | 36 | 5 | 13.9% |
| 9 | 82 | 26 | 1 | 3.8% |
| 10 | 101 | 24 | 6 | 25.0% |
| 11 | 122 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% |
| 12 | 145 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% |
| 13 | 170 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 14 | 197 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| 15 | 226 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 16 | 257 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 18 | 325 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 19 | 362 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
Nonresident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+6 applicants a year), about 529 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 5%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 5.1 (+0.46 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.
Landowner preference (nonresidents, 2026): 16 first-choice applicants, 5 drawn.
First-choice odds by year
First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).
| Draw year | Quota | Res applicants | Res odds | NR applicants | NR odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 280 | 2,609 | 8.4% | 506 | 4.0% |
| 2024 | 280 | 2,896 | 7.4% | 506 | 4.5% |
| 2025 | 280 | 3,139 | 6.9% | 513 | 4.3% |
| 2026 | 325 | 3,553 | 7.0% | 523 | 5.2% |
Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.
Notes from TagCanyon
- In 2026, 3,553 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 325, about 10.9 resident applicants per license.
- FWP lists this as a first-choice-only drawing: applying for it rules out second and third choices for that species.
- Residents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 16 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 50% drew.
- Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 13 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 0% drew.
Deadline
Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.
Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.
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