700-21 Elk Permit Draw Odds, Montana
Elk permit, district 700-21 (archery only), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.
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| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Drawing | Elk permit, district 700-21 (archery only) |
| 2026 total quota | 800 |
| 2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column) | 80 |
| 2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident | 120 / 80 |
| 2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident | 613 / 286 |
| 2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident | 612 / 77 |
| 2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident | 99.8% / 26.9% |
| 2026 total successful (all choices and pools) | 800 |
Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 175 | 175 | 100.0% |
| 1 | 2 | 364 | 364 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 5 | 43 | 43 | 100.0% |
| 3 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 100.0% |
| 4 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 80.0% |
| 5 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 100.0% |
| 6 | 37 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% |
| 7 | 50 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 8 | 65 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 10 | 101 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Resident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-17 applicants a year), about 596 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 100%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 0.9 (-0.04 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.
Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 3 first-choice applicants, 3 drawn.
Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 1 | 2 | 38 | 4 | 10.5% |
| 2 | 5 | 49 | 5 | 10.2% |
| 3 | 10 | 49 | 8 | 16.3% |
| 4 | 17 | 32 | 9 | 28.1% |
| 5 | 26 | 32 | 12 | 37.5% |
| 6 | 37 | 35 | 17 | 48.6% |
| 7 | 50 | 14 | 7 | 50.0% |
| 8 | 65 | 16 | 12 | 75.0% |
| 9 | 82 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% |
| 10 | 101 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% |
| 11 | 122 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 18 | 325 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
Nonresident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-14 applicants a year), about 272 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 28%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 4.3 (+0.28 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.
Landowner preference (nonresidents, 2026): 1 first-choice applicants, 1 drawn.
First-choice odds by year
First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).
| Draw year | Quota | Res applicants | Res odds | NR applicants | NR odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 660 | 663 | 89.1% | 329 | 20.1% |
| 2024 | 800 | 707 | 100.0% | 349 | 22.6% |
| 2025 | 800 | 676 | 99.6% | 315 | 25.1% |
| 2026 | 800 | 613 | 99.8% | 286 | 26.9% |
Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.
Notes from TagCanyon
- In 2026, 613 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 800, about 0.8 resident applicants per license.
- Licenses still went to second or third choices in 2026, so the drawing did not fill on first choice.
- Residents: at 0 bonus points 100% drew; at 5 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.
- Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 9 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 10% drew.
Deadline
Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.
Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.
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