Bull elk with large antlers standing in golden sagebrush

455-21 Elk Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Elk permit, district 455-21 (archery only), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Photo: National Park Service (GrandTetonNPS), public domain. Photo credits

Fact	Value
Drawing	Elk permit, district 455-21 (archery only)
2026 total quota	100
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	10
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	15 / 10
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	64 / 21
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	64 / 10
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	100.0% / 47.6%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	100

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	22	22	100.0%
1	2	28	28	100.0%
2	5	6	6	100.0%
3	10	1	1	100.0%
4	17	1	1	100.0%
5	26	2	2	100.0%
6	37	2	2	100.0%
7	50	2	2	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-9 applicants a year), about 55 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 100%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.2 (-0.06 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
1	2	6	2	33.3%
2	5	4	1	25.0%
3	10	5	2	40.0%
4	17	3	3	100.0%
5	26	2	1	50.0%
9	82	1	1	100.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+3 applicants a year), about 24 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 42%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 2.9 (+0.06 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	100	92	96.7%	12	83.3%
2024	100	69	100.0%	23	43.5%
2025	100	81	96.3%	24	41.7%
2026	100	64	100.0%	21	47.6%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 64 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 100, about 0.6 resident applicants per license.
Licenses still went to second or third choices in 2026, so the drawing did not fill on first choice.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 100% drew; at 2 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.
Nonresidents: at 1 bonus points 33% drew; at 3 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 40% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.