Bull elk with large antlers standing in golden sagebrush

455-00 Elk B License Draw Odds, Montana

Elk b license, district 455-00, from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Photo: National Park Service (GrandTetonNPS), public domain. Photo credits

Fact	Value
Drawing	Elk b license, district 455-00
2026 total quota	250
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	25
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	38 / 25
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	637 / 29
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	236 / 14
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	37.0% / 48.3%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	250

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	75	7	9.3%
1	2	262	71	27.1%
2	5	167	72	43.1%
3	10	96	57	59.4%
4	17	26	21	80.8%
5	26	9	6	66.7%
8	65	2	2	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-27 applicants a year), about 610 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 39%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.7 (+0.02 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	2	0	0.0%
1	2	9	3	33.3%
2	5	10	4	40.0%
3	10	6	5	83.3%
4	17	2	2	100.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+4 applicants a year), about 33 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 43%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 2.1 (+0.24 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	250	718	34.0%	18	33.3%
2024	250	702	34.5%	23	34.8%
2025	250	692	35.4%	29	17.2%
2026	250	637	37.0%	29	48.3%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 637 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 250, about 2.5 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 9% drew; at 5 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 67% drew.
Nonresidents: at 1 bonus points 33% drew; at 3 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 83% drew.

Deadline

Elk B, deer B, antelope and antelope B licenses: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Jun 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain). FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the June 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.