447-21 Elk Permit Draw Odds, Montana
Elk permit, district 447-21 (first and only archery only), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.
Photo: National Park Service (GrandTetonNPS), public domain. Photo credits
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| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Drawing | Elk permit, district 447-21 (first and only archery only) |
| 2026 total quota | 400 |
| 2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column) | 40 |
| 2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident | 60 / 40 |
| 2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident | 262 / 71 |
| 2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident | 262 / 71 |
| 2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident | 100.0% / 100.0% |
| 2026 total successful (all choices and pools) | 335 |
Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 65 | 65 | 100.0% |
| 1 | 2 | 149 | 149 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 5 | 22 | 22 | 100.0% |
| 3 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 100.0% |
| 4 | 17 | 9 | 9 | 100.0% |
| 5 | 26 | 4 | 4 | 100.0% |
| 6 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 7 | 50 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Resident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-56 applicants a year), about 206 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 100%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.0 (-0.08 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.
Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 2 first-choice applicants, 2 drawn.
Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 100.0% |
| 1 | 2 | 24 | 24 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 5 | 19 | 19 | 100.0% |
| 3 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 100.0% |
| 4 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% |
| 5 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 6 | 37 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 7 | 50 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
Nonresident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+7 applicants a year), about 78 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 91%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 2.2 (+0.20 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.
First-choice odds by year
First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).
| Draw year | Quota | Res applicants | Res odds | NR applicants | NR odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 400 | 429 | 83.9% | 49 | 79.6% |
| 2024 | 400 | 341 | 100.0% | 84 | 67.9% |
| 2025 | 400 | 320 | 99.4% | 91 | 90.1% |
| 2026 | 400 | 262 | 100.0% | 71 | 100.0% |
Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.
Notes from TagCanyon
- In 2026, 262 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 400, about 0.7 resident applicants per license.
- FWP lists this as a first-choice-only drawing: applying for it rules out second and third choices for that species.
- Residents: at 0 bonus points 100% drew; at 4 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.
- Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 100% drew; at 3 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.
Deadline
Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.
Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.
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