Bull elk with large antlers standing in golden sagebrush

425-02 Elk B License Draw Odds, Montana

Elk b license, district 425-02, from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Photo: National Park Service (GrandTetonNPS), public domain. Photo credits

Fact	Value
Drawing	Elk b license, district 425-02
2026 total quota	20
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	2
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	3 / 2
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	381 / 1
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	18 / 0
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	4.7% / 0.0%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	20

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	36	0	0.0%
1	2	78	0	0.0%
2	5	73	0	0.0%
3	10	68	2	2.9%
4	17	42	3	7.1%
5	26	37	4	10.8%
6	37	25	2	8.0%
7	50	9	4	44.4%
8	65	2	0	0.0%
9	82	3	1	33.3%
10	101	3	1	33.3%
11	122	2	0	0.0%
12	145	2	1	50.0%
13	170	1	0	0.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+22 applicants a year), about 403 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 4%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 3.2 (+0.26 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 2 first-choice applicants, 2 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
2	5	1	0	0.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-1 applicants a year), about 1 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 0%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 2.4 (+0.44 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	20	316	6.0%	3	0.0%
2024	20	346	5.2%	1	0.0%
2025	20	330	5.8%	2	0.0%
2026	20	381	4.7%	1	0.0%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 381 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 20, about 19.1 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 7 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 44% drew.

Deadline

Elk B, deer B, antelope and antelope B licenses: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Jun 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain). FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the June 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.