417-21 Elk Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Elk permit, district 417-21 (first and only archery only), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Elk permit, district 417-21 (first and only archery only)
2026 total quota	300
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	30
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	45 / 30
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	350 / 121
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	267 / 28
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	76.3% / 23.1%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	300

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	40	22	55.0%
1	2	204	144	70.6%
2	5	62	58	93.5%
3	10	16	15	93.8%
4	17	14	14	100.0%
5	26	4	4	100.0%
6	37	6	6	100.0%
7	50	2	2	100.0%
9	82	1	1	100.0%
11	122	1	1	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+22 applicants a year), about 372 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 72%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.6 (+0.11 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 3 first-choice applicants, 3 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	3	0	0.0%
1	2	17	0	0.0%
2	5	25	0	0.0%
3	10	12	2	16.7%
4	17	16	1	6.2%
5	26	19	9	47.4%
6	37	13	5	38.5%
7	50	2	2	100.0%
8	65	11	7	63.6%
9	82	3	2	66.7%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+2 applicants a year), about 123 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 23%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 4.3 (+0.40 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (nonresidents, 2026): 2 first-choice applicants, 2 drawn.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	300	285	94.4%	116	24.1%
2024	300	300	88.7%	109	27.5%
2025	300	330	80.6%	131	21.4%
2026	300	350	76.3%	121	23.1%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 350 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 300, about 1.2 resident applicants per license.
FWP lists this as a first-choice-only drawing: applying for it rules out second and third choices for that species.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 55% drew; at 6 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.
Nonresidents: at 1 bonus points 0% drew; at 8 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 64% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.