Bull elk with large antlers standing in golden sagebrush

417-02 Elk B License Draw Odds, Montana

Elk b license, district 417-02, from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Photo: National Park Service (GrandTetonNPS), public domain. Photo credits

Fact	Value
Drawing	Elk b license, district 417-02
2026 total quota	50
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	5
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	8 / 5
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	183 / 18
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	43 / 5
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	23.5% / 27.8%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	50

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	47	4	8.5%
1	2	61	9	14.8%
2	5	35	10	28.6%
3	10	28	12	42.9%
4	17	6	3	50.0%
5	26	6	5	83.3%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-2 applicants a year), about 181 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 24%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.6 (+0.16 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 2 first-choice applicants, 2 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	3	2	66.7%
1	2	8	2	25.0%
2	5	4	0	0.0%
3	10	2	0	0.0%
5	26	1	1	100.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-1 applicants a year), about 17 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 30%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.6 (+0.09 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	50	189	23.3%	22	13.6%
2024	50	190	24.7%	24	12.5%
2025	50	159	29.6%	9	22.2%
2026	50	183	23.5%	18	27.8%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 183 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 50, about 3.7 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 9% drew; at 5 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 83% drew.

Deadline

Elk B, deer B, antelope and antelope B licenses: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Jun 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain). FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the June 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.