412-20 Elk Permit Draw Odds, Montana
Elk permit, district 412-20, from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.
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| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Drawing | Elk permit, district 412-20 |
| 2026 total quota | 120 |
| 2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column) | 12 |
| 2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident | 18 / 12 |
| 2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident | 489 / 51 |
| 2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident | 92 / 10 |
| 2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident | 18.8% / 19.6% |
| 2026 total successful (all choices and pools) | 120 |
Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 73 | 1 | 1.4% |
| 1 | 2 | 123 | 6 | 4.9% |
| 2 | 5 | 94 | 9 | 9.6% |
| 3 | 10 | 80 | 16 | 20.0% |
| 4 | 17 | 48 | 17 | 35.4% |
| 5 | 26 | 37 | 16 | 43.2% |
| 6 | 37 | 12 | 8 | 66.7% |
| 7 | 50 | 5 | 5 | 100.0% |
| 8 | 65 | 6 | 6 | 100.0% |
| 10 | 101 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 12 | 145 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 15 | 226 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% |
| 20 | 401 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 23 | 530 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Resident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+26 applicants a year), about 515 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 18%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 2.6 (+0.15 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.
Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 19 first-choice applicants, 16 drawn.
Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 3 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% |
| 4 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 5 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 6 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% |
| 7 | 50 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 8 | 65 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% |
| 9 | 82 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 10 | 101 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
Nonresident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-4 applicants a year), about 47 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 21%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 3.9 (+0.19 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.
Landowner preference (nonresidents, 2026): 2 first-choice applicants, 2 drawn.
First-choice odds by year
First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).
| Draw year | Quota | Res applicants | Res odds | NR applicants | NR odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 120 | 412 | 22.8% | 63 | 17.5% |
| 2024 | 120 | 432 | 22.2% | 62 | 14.5% |
| 2025 | 120 | 427 | 21.5% | 48 | 22.9% |
| 2026 | 120 | 489 | 18.8% | 51 | 19.6% |
Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.
Notes from TagCanyon
- In 2026, 489 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 120, about 4.1 resident applicants per license.
- Residents: at 0 bonus points 1% drew; at 8 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.
- Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 6 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 20% drew.
Deadline
Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.
Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.
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