411-20 Elk Permit Draw Odds, Montana
Elk permit, district 411-20 (first and only), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.
Photo: National Park Service (GrandTetonNPS), public domain. Photo credits
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| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Drawing | Elk permit, district 411-20 (first and only) |
| 2026 total quota | 350 |
| 2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column) | 35 |
| 2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident | 53 / 35 |
| 2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident | 3,005 / 220 |
| 2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident | 273 / 24 |
| 2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident | 9.1% / 10.9% |
| 2026 total successful (all choices and pools) | 350 |
Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 387 | 1 | 0.3% |
| 1 | 2 | 681 | 10 | 1.5% |
| 2 | 5 | 529 | 19 | 3.6% |
| 3 | 10 | 429 | 36 | 8.4% |
| 4 | 17 | 354 | 34 | 9.6% |
| 5 | 26 | 215 | 41 | 19.1% |
| 6 | 37 | 179 | 52 | 29.1% |
| 7 | 50 | 78 | 21 | 26.9% |
| 8 | 65 | 45 | 14 | 31.1% |
| 9 | 82 | 27 | 10 | 37.0% |
| 10 | 101 | 8 | 5 | 62.5% |
| 11 | 122 | 9 | 6 | 66.7% |
| 12 | 145 | 10 | 6 | 60.0% |
| 13 | 170 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% |
| 14 | 197 | 7 | 6 | 85.7% |
| 15 | 226 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 16 | 257 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% |
| 17 | 290 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% |
| 18 | 325 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 19 | 362 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 20 | 401 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 24 | 577 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Resident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+200 applicants a year), about 3,205 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 9%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 3.0 (+0.22 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.
Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 77 first-choice applicants, 45 drawn.
Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 1 | 2 | 30 | 1 | 3.3% |
| 2 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 3 | 10 | 22 | 1 | 4.5% |
| 4 | 17 | 30 | 4 | 13.3% |
| 5 | 26 | 31 | 1 | 3.2% |
| 6 | 37 | 20 | 3 | 15.0% |
| 7 | 50 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% |
| 8 | 65 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
| 9 | 82 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% |
| 10 | 101 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% |
| 11 | 122 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 13 | 170 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 16 | 257 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Nonresident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+1 applicants a year), about 221 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 11%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 4.3 (+0.42 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.
Landowner preference (nonresidents, 2026): 12 first-choice applicants, 8 drawn.
First-choice odds by year
First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).
| Draw year | Quota | Res applicants | Res odds | NR applicants | NR odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 350 | 2,406 | 11.2% | 216 | 13.4% |
| 2024 | 350 | 2,662 | 10.4% | 267 | 7.9% |
| 2025 | 350 | 2,739 | 9.8% | 287 | 10.1% |
| 2026 | 350 | 3,005 | 9.1% | 220 | 10.9% |
Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.
Notes from TagCanyon
- In 2026, 3,005 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 350, about 8.6 resident applicants per license.
- FWP lists this as a first-choice-only drawing: applying for it rules out second and third choices for that species.
- Residents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 14 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 86% drew.
- Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 9 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 38% drew.
Deadline
Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.
Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.
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