410-21 Elk Permit Draw Odds, Montana
Elk permit, district 410-21 (archery only), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.
Photo: National Park Service (GrandTetonNPS), public domain. Photo credits
Get draw deadline reminders
An email before the Montana 410-21 elk application deadline, and before every other Texas and Western draw closes.
Free. A few emails a year, timed to deadlines and results. Unsubscribe anytime.
| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Drawing | Elk permit, district 410-21 (archery only) |
| 2026 total quota | 1,000 |
| 2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column) | 100 |
| 2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident | 150 / 100 |
| 2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident | 1,196 / 341 |
| 2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident | 885 / 98 |
| 2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident | 74.0% / 28.7% |
| 2026 total successful (all choices and pools) | 1,000 |
Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 219 | 94 | 42.9% |
| 1 | 2 | 672 | 503 | 74.9% |
| 2 | 5 | 196 | 181 | 92.3% |
| 3 | 10 | 42 | 42 | 100.0% |
| 4 | 17 | 27 | 26 | 96.3% |
| 5 | 26 | 17 | 17 | 100.0% |
| 6 | 37 | 10 | 9 | 90.0% |
| 7 | 50 | 5 | 5 | 100.0% |
| 8 | 65 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 9 | 82 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% |
| 10 | 101 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 12 | 145 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 15 | 226 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Resident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-60 applicants a year), about 1,136 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 78%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.4 (+0.05 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.
Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 15 first-choice applicants, 15 drawn.
Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 26 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 1 | 2 | 36 | 1 | 2.8% |
| 2 | 5 | 69 | 8 | 11.6% |
| 3 | 10 | 41 | 8 | 19.5% |
| 4 | 17 | 39 | 8 | 20.5% |
| 5 | 26 | 35 | 14 | 40.0% |
| 6 | 37 | 40 | 21 | 52.5% |
| 7 | 50 | 31 | 18 | 58.1% |
| 8 | 65 | 16 | 14 | 87.5% |
| 9 | 82 | 6 | 4 | 66.7% |
| 10 | 101 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
Nonresident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-26 applicants a year), about 315 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 31%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 4.1 (+0.30 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.
Landowner preference (nonresidents, 2026): 2 first-choice applicants, 2 drawn.
First-choice odds by year
First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).
| Draw year | Quota | Res applicants | Res odds | NR applicants | NR odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1,000 | 1,376 | 64.7% | 420 | 22.4% |
| 2024 | 1,000 | 1,215 | 73.2% | 303 | 31.7% |
| 2025 | 1,000 | 1,210 | 73.2% | 373 | 26.0% |
| 2026 | 1,000 | 1,196 | 74.0% | 341 | 28.7% |
Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.
Notes from TagCanyon
- In 2026, 1,196 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 1,000, about 1.2 resident applicants per license.
- Residents: at 0 bonus points 43% drew; at 7 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.
- Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 9 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 67% drew.
Deadline
Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.
Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.
Get draw deadline reminders
Texas drawn hunt deadlines (Jul to Nov) and Western draw windows (Jan to Jun), plus results when they post. Free. Unsubscribe anytime.