410-01 Elk B License Draw Odds, Montana

Elk b license, district 410-01, from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Elk b license, district 410-01
2026 total quota	300
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	30
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	45 / 30
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	248 / 31
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	248 / 30
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	100.0% / 96.8%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	300

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	64	64	100.0%
1	2	125	125	100.0%
2	5	28	28	100.0%
3	10	21	21	100.0%
4	17	5	5	100.0%
5	26	4	4	100.0%
6	37	1	1	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-6 applicants a year), about 242 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 100%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.2 (+0.06 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 2 first-choice applicants, 2 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	8	8	100.0%
1	2	19	18	94.7%
2	5	4	4	100.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-1 applicants a year), about 30 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 99%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 0.7 (-0.20 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	300	267	100.0%	33	90.9%
2024	300	260	100.0%	39	76.9%
2025	300	260	100.0%	29	100.0%
2026	300	248	100.0%	31	96.8%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 248 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 300, about 0.8 resident applicants per license.
Licenses still went to second or third choices in 2026, so the drawing did not fill on first choice.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 100% drew; at 4 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.
Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 100% drew; at 1 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 95% drew.

Deadline

Elk B, deer B, antelope and antelope B licenses: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Jun 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain). FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the June 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.