Bull elk with large antlers standing in golden sagebrush

401-20 Elk Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Elk permit, district 401-20, from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Photo: National Park Service (GrandTetonNPS), public domain. Photo credits

Fact	Value
Drawing	Elk permit, district 401-20
2026 total quota	50
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	5
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	8 / 5
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	436 / 26
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	41 / 1
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	9.4% / 3.8%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	50

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	75	2	2.7%
1	2	88	7	8.0%
2	5	70	4	5.7%
3	10	63	5	7.9%
4	17	46	3	6.5%
5	26	36	6	16.7%
6	37	21	1	4.8%
7	50	16	5	31.2%
8	65	13	6	46.2%
9	82	1	1	100.0%
11	122	2	1	50.0%
12	145	1	0	0.0%
13	170	1	0	0.0%
15	226	1	0	0.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+26 applicants a year), about 462 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 9%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 2.8 (+0.07 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 10 first-choice applicants, 8 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	2	0	0.0%
1	2	10	0	0.0%
2	5	6	0	0.0%
3	10	3	0	0.0%
4	17	1	0	0.0%
5	26	2	0	0.0%
6	37	1	0	0.0%
7	50	1	1	100.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+2 applicants a year), about 28 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 4%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 2.4 (+0.22 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	50	357	11.5%	20	5.0%
2024	50	355	11.3%	31	6.5%
2025	50	384	10.7%	30	3.3%
2026	50	436	9.4%	26	3.8%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 436 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 50, about 8.7 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 3% drew; at 8 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 46% drew.
Nonresidents: at 1 bonus points 0% drew; at 2 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 0% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.