380-20 Elk Permit Draw Odds, Montana
Elk permit, district 380-20, from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.
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| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Drawing | Elk permit, district 380-20 |
| 2026 total quota | 100 |
| 2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column) | 10 |
| 2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident | 15 / 10 |
| 2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident | 11,328 / 615 |
| 2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident | 84 / 1 |
| 2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident | 0.7% / 0.2% |
| 2026 total successful (all choices and pools) | 100 |
Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 973 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 1 | 2 | 1,570 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2 | 5 | 1,248 | 4 | 0.3% |
| 3 | 10 | 1,061 | 1 | 0.1% |
| 4 | 17 | 1,004 | 2 | 0.2% |
| 5 | 26 | 924 | 2 | 0.2% |
| 6 | 37 | 757 | 3 | 0.4% |
| 7 | 50 | 541 | 2 | 0.4% |
| 8 | 65 | 481 | 5 | 1.0% |
| 9 | 82 | 416 | 5 | 1.2% |
| 10 | 101 | 324 | 7 | 2.2% |
| 11 | 122 | 288 | 4 | 1.4% |
| 12 | 145 | 237 | 4 | 1.7% |
| 13 | 170 | 190 | 3 | 1.6% |
| 14 | 197 | 176 | 4 | 2.3% |
| 15 | 226 | 178 | 7 | 3.9% |
| 16 | 257 | 146 | 3 | 2.1% |
| 17 | 290 | 130 | 5 | 3.8% |
| 18 | 325 | 106 | 6 | 5.7% |
| 19 | 362 | 96 | 2 | 2.1% |
| 20 | 401 | 92 | 1 | 1.1% |
| 21 | 442 | 81 | 3 | 3.7% |
| 22 | 485 | 105 | 3 | 2.9% |
| 23 | 530 | 85 | 4 | 4.7% |
| 24 | 577 | 96 | 4 | 4.2% |
Resident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+424 applicants a year), about 11,752 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 1%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 6.1 (+0.13 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.
Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 38 first-choice applicants, 15 drawn.
Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 101 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 1 | 2 | 110 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2 | 5 | 92 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 3 | 10 | 61 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 4 | 17 | 51 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 5 | 26 | 25 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 6 | 37 | 36 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 7 | 50 | 30 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 8 | 65 | 19 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 9 | 82 | 18 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 10 | 101 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 11 | 122 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 12 | 145 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 13 | 170 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 14 | 197 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
| 15 | 226 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 16 | 257 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 17 | 290 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 18 | 325 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 19 | 362 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 20 | 401 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 21 | 442 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 22 | 485 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 23 | 530 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 24 | 577 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
Nonresident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+6 applicants a year), about 621 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 0%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 4.4 (+0.26 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.
Landowner preference (nonresidents, 2026): 2 first-choice applicants, 0 drawn.
First-choice odds by year
First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).
| Draw year | Quota | Res applicants | Res odds | NR applicants | NR odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 100 | 10,055 | 0.8% | 598 | 0.8% |
| 2024 | 100 | 10,168 | 0.8% | 621 | 0.3% |
| 2025 | 100 | 10,307 | 0.8% | 533 | 0.2% |
| 2026 | 100 | 11,328 | 0.7% | 615 | 0.2% |
Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.
Notes from TagCanyon
- In 2026, 11,328 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 100, about 113.3 resident applicants per license.
- Residents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 24 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 4% drew.
- Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 17 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 0% drew.
Deadline
Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.
Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.
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