319-00 Elk B License Draw Odds, Montana
Elk b license, district 319-00, from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.
Photo: National Park Service (GrandTetonNPS), public domain. Photo credits
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| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Drawing | Elk b license, district 319-00 |
| 2026 total quota | 500 |
| 2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column) | 50 |
| 2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident | 75 / 50 |
| 2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident | 1,348 / 147 |
| 2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident | 452 / 42 |
| 2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident | 33.5% / 28.6% |
| 2026 total successful (all choices and pools) | 500 |
Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 284 | 31 | 10.9% |
| 1 | 2 | 543 | 128 | 23.6% |
| 2 | 5 | 326 | 155 | 47.5% |
| 3 | 10 | 149 | 97 | 65.1% |
| 4 | 17 | 37 | 32 | 86.5% |
| 5 | 26 | 5 | 5 | 100.0% |
| 6 | 37 | 4 | 4 | 100.0% |
Resident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+71 applicants a year), about 1,419 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 32%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.4 (+0.05 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.
Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 4 first-choice applicants, 4 drawn.
Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 26 | 5 | 19.2% |
| 1 | 2 | 89 | 22 | 24.7% |
| 2 | 5 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% |
| 3 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 50.0% |
| 4 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 100.0% |
Nonresident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+19 applicants a year), about 166 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 25%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.3 (+0.09 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.
Landowner preference (nonresidents, 2026): 2 first-choice applicants, 2 drawn.
First-choice odds by year
First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).
| Draw year | Quota | Res applicants | Res odds | NR applicants | NR odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 400 | 1,134 | 33.0% | 91 | 20.9% |
| 2024 | 400 | 1,224 | 30.2% | 114 | 21.1% |
| 2025 | 500 | 1,230 | 37.2% | 124 | 30.6% |
| 2026 | 500 | 1,348 | 33.5% | 147 | 28.6% |
Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.
Notes from TagCanyon
- In 2026, 1,348 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 500, about 2.7 resident applicants per license.
- Residents: at 0 bonus points 11% drew; at 5 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.
- Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 19% drew; at 4 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.
Deadline
Elk B, deer B, antelope and antelope B licenses: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Jun 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain). FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the June 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.
Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.
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