313-45 Elk Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Elk permit, district 313-45, from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Elk permit, district 313-45
2026 total quota	50
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	5
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	8 / 5
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	788 / 80
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	43 / 5
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	5.5% / 6.2%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	50

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	130	0	0.0%
1	2	141	4	2.8%
2	5	105	2	1.9%
3	10	87	1	1.1%
4	17	100	8	8.0%
5	26	75	6	8.0%
6	37	50	5	10.0%
7	50	33	5	15.2%
8	65	18	4	22.2%
9	82	17	2	11.8%
10	101	15	3	20.0%
11	122	7	0	0.0%
12	145	4	2	50.0%
13	170	1	0	0.0%
14	197	1	0	0.0%
15	226	2	1	50.0%
17	290	2	0	0.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-37 applicants a year), about 751 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 6%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 3.5 (+0.21 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 2 first-choice applicants, 2 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	29	0	0.0%
1	2	13	1	7.7%
2	5	10	0	0.0%
3	10	7	0	0.0%
4	17	7	1	14.3%
5	26	4	0	0.0%
6	37	3	0	0.0%
7	50	1	0	0.0%
8	65	1	1	100.0%
9	82	2	2	100.0%
10	101	3	0	0.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+0 applicants a year), about 80 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 6%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 2.3 (+0.02 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	50	899	4.7%	79	6.3%
2024	50	843	5.6%	112	0.9%
2025	50	761	5.7%	78	6.4%
2026	50	788	5.5%	80	6.2%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 788 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 50, about 15.8 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 11 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 0% drew.
Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 4 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 14% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.