Bull elk with large antlers standing in golden sagebrush

250-45 Elk Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Elk permit, district 250-45, from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Photo: National Park Service (GrandTetonNPS), public domain. Photo credits

Fact	Value
Drawing	Elk permit, district 250-45
2026 total quota	45
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	4
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	7 / 4
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	1,513 / 69
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	43 / 2
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	2.8% / 2.9%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	45

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	133	1	0.8%
1	2	244	1	0.4%
2	5	221	1	0.5%
3	10	188	2	1.1%
4	17	167	1	0.6%
5	26	139	2	1.4%
6	37	117	4	3.4%
7	50	75	6	8.0%
8	65	57	3	5.3%
9	82	58	6	10.3%
10	101	33	0	0.0%
11	122	27	7	25.9%
12	145	12	1	8.3%
13	170	11	2	18.2%
14	197	13	2	15.4%
15	226	3	0	0.0%
16	257	5	2	40.0%
17	290	6	2	33.3%
19	362	1	0	0.0%
20	401	3	0	0.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+33 applicants a year), about 1,546 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 3%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 4.3 (+0.22 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	13	0	0.0%
1	2	19	0	0.0%
2	5	8	0	0.0%
3	10	2	0	0.0%
4	17	5	0	0.0%
5	26	8	0	0.0%
6	37	4	0	0.0%
7	50	1	0	0.0%
8	65	3	1	33.3%
9	82	4	0	0.0%
10	101	2	1	50.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+0 applicants a year), about 69 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 3%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 3.1 (+0.06 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	45	1,413	3.0%	69	2.9%
2024	45	1,586	2.8%	86	1.2%
2025	45	1,661	2.6%	67	3.0%
2026	45	1,513	2.8%	69	2.9%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 1,513 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 45, about 33.6 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 1% drew; at 17 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 33% drew.
Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 5 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 0% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.