413-00 Deer B License Draw Odds, Montana

Deer b license, district 413-00 (mule), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Deer b license, district 413-00 (mule)
2026 total quota	100
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	10
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	15 / 10
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	293 / 18
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	91 / 6
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	31.1% / 33.3%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	100

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	94	8	8.5%
1	2	117	31	26.5%
2	5	57	34	59.6%
3	10	19	14	73.7%
4	17	5	3	60.0%
5	26	1	1	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-0 applicants a year), about 293 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 31%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.2 (+0.12 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 3 first-choice applicants, 3 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	6	3	50.0%
1	2	5	3	60.0%
2	5	7	0	0.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-5 applicants a year), about 13 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 47%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.3 (+0.22 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	100	294	29.9%	34	29.4%
2024	100	308	29.5%	28	25.0%
2025	100	328	27.7%	34	20.6%
2026	100	293	31.1%	18	33.3%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 293 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 100, about 2.9 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 9% drew; at 4 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 60% drew.
Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 50% drew; at 2 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 0% drew.

Deadline

Elk B, deer B, antelope and antelope B licenses: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Jun 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain). FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the June 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.