Mule deer buck with wide antlers grazing in grass on the National Elk Refuge, Wyoming

412-01 Deer B License Draw Odds, Montana

Deer b license, district 412-01 (mule), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Photo: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS Mountain Prairie), public domain. Photo credits

Fact	Value
Drawing	Deer b license, district 412-01 (mule)
2026 total quota	50
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	5
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	8 / 5
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	55 / 19
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	45 / 5
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	81.8% / 26.3%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	50

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	25	18	72.0%
1	2	26	23	88.5%
2	5	4	4	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-20 applicants a year), about 35 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 100%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 0.6 (+0.01 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	15	4	26.7%
1	2	4	1	25.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-1 applicants a year), about 18 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 28%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 0.1 (-0.07 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	50	115	38.3%	23	21.7%
2024	50	89	50.6%	26	19.2%
2025	50	58	77.6%	24	20.8%
2026	50	55	81.8%	19	26.3%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 55 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 50, about 1.1 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 72% drew; at 1 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 88% drew.

Deadline

Elk B, deer B, antelope and antelope B licenses: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Jun 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain). FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the June 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.