406-51 Deer Permit Draw Odds, Montana
Deer permit, district 406-51 (wt), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.
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| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Drawing | Deer permit, district 406-51 (wt) |
| 2026 total quota | 25 |
| 2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column) | 2 |
| 2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident | 4 / 2 |
| 2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident | 186 / 3 |
| 2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident | 21 / 0 |
| 2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident | 11.3% / 0.0% |
| 2026 total successful (all choices and pools) | 25 |
Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 1 | 2 | 50 | 2 | 4.0% |
| 2 | 5 | 34 | 1 | 2.9% |
| 3 | 10 | 29 | 3 | 10.3% |
| 4 | 17 | 22 | 5 | 22.7% |
| 5 | 26 | 15 | 1 | 6.7% |
| 6 | 37 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 7 | 50 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 8 | 65 | 5 | 4 | 80.0% |
| 9 | 82 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% |
| 10 | 101 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| 11 | 122 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 15 | 226 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
Resident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+20 applicants a year), about 206 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 10%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 3.2 (+0.17 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.
Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 5 first-choice applicants, 4 drawn.
Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
Nonresident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+0 applicants a year), about 3 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 0%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 0.8 (+0.11 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.
First-choice odds by year
First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).
| Draw year | Quota | Res applicants | Res odds | NR applicants | NR odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 25 | 125 | 17.6% | 3 | 0.0% |
| 2024 | 25 | 164 | 12.8% | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2025 | 25 | 154 | 13.6% | 3 | 0.0% |
| 2026 | 25 | 186 | 11.3% | 3 | 0.0% |
Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.
Notes from TagCanyon
- In 2026, 186 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 25, about 7.4 resident applicants per license.
- Residents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 8 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 80% drew.
Deadline
Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.
Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.
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