Mule deer buck with wide antlers grazing in grass on the National Elk Refuge, Wyoming

403-51 Deer Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Deer permit, district 403-51 (wt), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Photo: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS Mountain Prairie), public domain. Photo credits

Fact	Value
Drawing	Deer permit, district 403-51 (wt)
2026 total quota	10
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	1
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	2 / 1
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	34 / 1
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	9 / 0
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	26.5% / 0.0%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	10

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	11	0	0.0%
1	2	12	2	16.7%
2	5	9	6	66.7%
3	10	2	1	50.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+2 applicants a year), about 36 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 25%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 0.7 (-0.31 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 1 first-choice applicants, 1 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
1	2	1	0	0.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+0 applicants a year), about 1 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 0%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 0.5 (-0.50 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	10	29	34.5%	0	—
2024	10	26	38.5%	1	0.0%
2025	10	33	30.3%	1	0.0%
2026	10	34	26.5%	1	0.0%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 34 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 10, about 3.4 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 2 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 67% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.