403-50 Deer Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Deer permit, district 403-50 (mule), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Deer permit, district 403-50 (mule)
2026 total quota	30
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	3
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	5 / 3
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	29 / 3
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	25 / 3
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	86.2% / 100.0%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	30

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	7	3	42.9%
1	2	14	14	100.0%
2	5	7	7	100.0%
3	10	1	1	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+1 applicants a year), about 30 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 82%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.0 (-0.11 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	1	1	100.0%
1	2	2	2	100.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-1 applicants a year), about 2 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 100%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about -0.7 (-1.33 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	30	25	100.0%	5	0.0%
2024	30	41	70.7%	0	—
2025	30	25	100.0%	0	—
2026	30	29	86.2%	3	100.0%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 29 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 30, about 1.0 resident applicants per license.
Licenses still went to second or third choices in 2026, so the drawing did not fill on first choice.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 43% drew; at 2 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.