401-50 Deer Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Deer permit, district 401-50 (mule), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Deer permit, district 401-50 (mule)
2026 total quota	135
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	13
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	21 / 13
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	232 / 32
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	121 / 12
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	52.2% / 37.5%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	135

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	49	7	14.3%
1	2	85	31	36.5%
2	5	54	41	75.9%
3	10	25	23	92.0%
4	17	8	8	100.0%
5	26	5	5	100.0%
6	37	2	2	100.0%
7	50	1	1	100.0%
9	82	3	3	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-3 applicants a year), about 229 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 53%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.6 (-0.05 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 2 first-choice applicants, 2 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	9	1	11.1%
1	2	10	1	10.0%
2	5	3	1	33.3%
3	10	5	5	100.0%
4	17	2	1	50.0%
5	26	1	1	100.0%
6	37	1	1	100.0%
9	82	1	1	100.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+6 applicants a year), about 38 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 32%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.9 (+0.04 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	90	241	32.0%	14	42.9%
2024	95	245	35.1%	18	44.4%
2025	135	225	53.8%	22	54.5%
2026	135	232	52.2%	32	37.5%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 232 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 135, about 1.7 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 14% drew; at 5 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.
Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 11% drew; at 3 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.