Mule deer buck with wide antlers grazing in grass on the National Elk Refuge, Wyoming

400-51 Deer Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Deer permit, district 400-51 (wt), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Photo: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS Mountain Prairie), public domain. Photo credits

Fact	Value
Drawing	Deer permit, district 400-51 (wt)
2026 total quota	35
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	3
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	6 / 3
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	176 / 9
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	28 / 1
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	15.9% / 11.1%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	35

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	26	1	3.8%
1	2	52	3	5.8%
2	5	43	4	9.3%
3	10	29	5	17.2%
4	17	6	1	16.7%
5	26	10	8	80.0%
6	37	6	4	66.7%
7	50	1	1	100.0%
8	65	1	0	0.0%
20	401	1	1	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+18 applicants a year), about 194 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 14%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 2.2 (+0.08 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 7 first-choice applicants, 6 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	4	0	0.0%
1	2	1	0	0.0%
2	5	1	0	0.0%
4	17	2	0	0.0%
5	26	1	1	100.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+0 applicants a year), about 9 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 11%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.6 (-0.19 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	25	123	17.9%	9	11.1%
2024	25	154	12.3%	4	50.0%
2025	35	159	18.2%	3	0.0%
2026	35	176	15.9%	9	11.1%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 176 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 35, about 5.0 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 4% drew; at 6 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 67% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.