Mule deer buck with wide antlers grazing in grass on the National Elk Refuge, Wyoming

392-50 Deer Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Deer permit, district 392-50 (mule), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Photo: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS Mountain Prairie), public domain. Photo credits

Fact	Value
Drawing	Deer permit, district 392-50 (mule)
2026 total quota	500
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	50
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	75 / 50
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	570 / 42
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	466 / 34
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	81.8% / 81.0%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	500

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	260	181	69.6%
1	2	255	230	90.2%
2	5	30	30	100.0%
3	10	9	9	100.0%
4	17	3	3	100.0%
5	26	4	4	100.0%
6	37	3	3	100.0%
7	50	3	3	100.0%
8	65	1	1	100.0%
9	82	1	1	100.0%
11	122	1	1	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+46 applicants a year), about 616 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 76%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 0.8 (+0.06 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	12	4	33.3%
1	2	14	14	100.0%
2	5	8	8	100.0%
3	10	1	1	100.0%
4	17	3	3	100.0%
5	26	3	3	100.0%
6	37	1	1	100.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+1 applicants a year), about 43 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 79%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.8 (+0.21 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	500	433	100.0%	39	100.0%
2024	500	524	86.3%	75	64.0%
2025	500	516	87.2%	60	83.3%
2026	500	570	81.8%	42	81.0%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 570 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 500, about 1.1 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 70% drew; at 3 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.
Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 33% drew; at 2 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.