390-01 Deer B License Draw Odds, Montana

Deer b license, district 390-01 (mule), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Deer b license, district 390-01 (mule)
2026 total quota	75
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	7
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	12 / 7
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	73 / 1
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	73 / 1
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	100.0% / 100.0%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	75

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	28	28	100.0%
1	2	39	39	100.0%
2	5	6	6	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-8 applicants a year), about 65 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 100%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 0.7 (-0.03 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	1	1	100.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-2 applicants a year), about 1 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 100%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about -0.2 (-0.24 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	50	96	47.9%	7	57.1%
2024	50	79	60.8%	3	66.7%
2025	75	53	100.0%	3	100.0%
2026	75	73	100.0%	1	100.0%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 73 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 75, about 1.0 resident applicants per license.
Licenses still went to second or third choices in 2026, so the drawing did not fill on first choice.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 100% drew; at 2 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.

Deadline

Elk B, deer B, antelope and antelope B licenses: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Jun 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain). FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the June 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.