Mule deer buck with wide antlers grazing in grass on the National Elk Refuge, Wyoming

282-51 Deer Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Deer permit, district 282-51 (wt), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Photo: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS Mountain Prairie), public domain. Photo credits

Fact	Value
Drawing	Deer permit, district 282-51 (wt)
2026 total quota	25
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	2
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	4 / 2
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	509 / 10
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	25 / 0
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	4.9% / 0.0%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	25

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	43	0	0.0%
1	2	111	1	0.9%
2	5	83	1	1.2%
3	10	60	0	0.0%
4	17	61	4	6.6%
5	26	38	2	5.3%
6	37	21	2	9.5%
7	50	24	1	4.2%
8	65	20	0	0.0%
9	82	12	1	8.3%
10	101	3	0	0.0%
11	122	3	0	0.0%
12	145	6	2	33.3%
13	170	5	2	40.0%
14	197	5	2	40.0%
16	257	4	2	50.0%
17	290	4	2	50.0%
18	325	3	2	66.7%
19	362	2	1	50.0%
21	442	1	0	0.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+79 applicants a year), about 588 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 4%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 4.0 (+0.14 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Odds at this level
0	1	3	0.0%
1	2	3	0.0%
2	5	2	0.0%
4	17	2	0.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+2 applicants a year), about 12 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 0%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.4 (-0.10 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	25	273	8.8%	5	20.0%
2024	25	315	7.9%	4	0.0%
2025	25	339	7.4%	6	0.0%
2026	25	509	4.9%	10	0.0%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 509 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 25, about 20.4 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 14 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 40% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.