Mule deer buck with wide antlers grazing in grass on the National Elk Refuge, Wyoming

282-50 Deer Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Deer permit, district 282-50 (mule), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Photo: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS Mountain Prairie), public domain. Photo credits

Fact	Value
Drawing	Deer permit, district 282-50 (mule)
2026 total quota	6
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	0
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	1 / 0
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	136 / 0
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	6 / 0
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	4.4% / —
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	6

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	24	0	0.0%
1	2	27	0	0.0%
2	5	16	0	0.0%
3	10	15	1	6.7%
4	17	14	0	0.0%
5	26	10	1	10.0%
6	37	5	0	0.0%
7	50	5	0	0.0%
8	65	3	1	33.3%
9	82	4	0	0.0%
10	101	3	0	0.0%
11	122	2	0	0.0%
12	145	1	1	100.0%
13	170	1	0	0.0%
14	197	2	1	50.0%
15	226	1	1	100.0%
16	257	1	0	0.0%
18	325	2	0	0.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+3 applicants a year), about 139 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 4%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 4.0 (+0.23 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

FWP lists no nonresident first-choice applicants by point level for 2026.

Nonresident outlook for 2027

Not enough nonresident first-choice applicants across the years for an outlook.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	6	127	4.7%	7	0.0%
2024	6	131	3.8%	0	—
2025	6	138	4.3%	0	—
2026	6	136	4.4%	0	—

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 136 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 6, about 22.7 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 7 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 0% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.