281-00 Deer B License Draw Odds, Montana
Deer b license, district 281-00 (wt), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.
Photo: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS Mountain Prairie), public domain. Photo credits
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| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Drawing | Deer b license, district 281-00 (wt) |
| 2026 total quota | 25 |
| 2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column) | 2 |
| 2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident | 4 / 2 |
| 2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident | 238 / 6 |
| 2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident | 23 / 0 |
| 2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident | 9.7% / 0.0% |
| 2026 total successful (all choices and pools) | 25 |
Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 79 | 1 | 1.3% |
| 1 | 2 | 47 | 1 | 2.1% |
| 2 | 5 | 54 | 7 | 13.0% |
| 3 | 10 | 27 | 3 | 11.1% |
| 4 | 17 | 22 | 8 | 36.4% |
| 5 | 26 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% |
| 6 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 7 | 50 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
Resident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+31 applicants a year), about 269 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 9%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.7 (+0.14 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.
Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 1 first-choice applicants, 1 drawn.
Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 3 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 4 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
Nonresident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+1 applicants a year), about 7 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 0%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.9 (+0.11 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.
Landowner preference (nonresidents, 2026): 1 first-choice applicants, 1 drawn.
First-choice odds by year
First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).
| Draw year | Quota | Res applicants | Res odds | NR applicants | NR odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 25 | 145 | 15.9% | 4 | 25.0% |
| 2024 | 25 | 183 | 12.6% | 11 | 9.1% |
| 2025 | 25 | 187 | 12.3% | 12 | 8.3% |
| 2026 | 25 | 238 | 9.7% | 6 | 0.0% |
Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.
Notes from TagCanyon
- In 2026, 238 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 25, about 9.5 resident applicants per license.
- Residents: at 0 bonus points 1% drew; at 5 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 43% drew.
Deadline
Elk B, deer B, antelope and antelope B licenses: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Jun 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain). FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the June 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.
Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.
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