270-50 Deer Permit Draw Odds, Montana
Deer permit, district 270-50 (mule), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.
Photo: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS Mountain Prairie), public domain. Photo credits
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| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Drawing | Deer permit, district 270-50 (mule) |
| 2026 total quota | 45 |
| 2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column) | 4 |
| 2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident | 7 / 4 |
| 2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident | 10,389 / 721 |
| 2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident | 36 / 2 |
| 2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident | 0.3% / 0.3% |
| 2026 total successful (all choices and pools) | 45 |
Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 715 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 1 | 2 | 1,304 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2 | 5 | 1,117 | 1 | 0.1% |
| 3 | 10 | 916 | 1 | 0.1% |
| 4 | 17 | 835 | 1 | 0.1% |
| 5 | 26 | 715 | 1 | 0.1% |
| 6 | 37 | 646 | 1 | 0.2% |
| 7 | 50 | 524 | 1 | 0.2% |
| 8 | 65 | 494 | 1 | 0.2% |
| 9 | 82 | 412 | 2 | 0.5% |
| 10 | 101 | 425 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 11 | 122 | 314 | 1 | 0.3% |
| 12 | 145 | 261 | 2 | 0.8% |
| 13 | 170 | 262 | 1 | 0.4% |
| 14 | 197 | 247 | 2 | 0.8% |
| 15 | 226 | 193 | 2 | 1.0% |
| 16 | 257 | 158 | 3 | 1.9% |
| 17 | 290 | 170 | 2 | 1.2% |
| 18 | 325 | 121 | 2 | 1.7% |
| 19 | 362 | 149 | 3 | 2.0% |
| 20 | 401 | 115 | 4 | 3.5% |
| 21 | 442 | 98 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 22 | 485 | 80 | 3 | 3.8% |
| 23 | 530 | 59 | 1 | 1.7% |
| 24 | 577 | 53 | 1 | 1.9% |
Resident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+495 applicants a year), about 10,884 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 0%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 6.8 (+0.25 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.
Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 11 first-choice applicants, 5 drawn.
Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 91 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 1 | 2 | 99 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2 | 5 | 81 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 3 | 10 | 59 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 4 | 17 | 70 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 5 | 26 | 51 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 6 | 37 | 52 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 7 | 50 | 38 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 8 | 65 | 25 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 9 | 82 | 36 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 10 | 101 | 27 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 11 | 122 | 26 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 12 | 145 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 13 | 170 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% |
| 14 | 197 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 15 | 226 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 16 | 257 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 17 | 290 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 18 | 325 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 19 | 362 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 20 | 401 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 21 | 442 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 22 | 485 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 23 | 530 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| 24 | 577 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
Nonresident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+29 applicants a year), about 750 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 0%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 5.4 (+0.32 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.
Landowner preference (nonresidents, 2026): 4 first-choice applicants, 2 drawn.
First-choice odds by year
First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).
| Draw year | Quota | Res applicants | Res odds | NR applicants | NR odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 45 | 8,903 | 0.4% | 635 | 0.2% |
| 2024 | 45 | 9,217 | 0.4% | 799 | 0.3% |
| 2025 | 45 | 9,666 | 0.4% | 749 | 0.3% |
| 2026 | 45 | 10,389 | 0.3% | 721 | 0.3% |
Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.
Notes from TagCanyon
- In 2026, 10,389 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 45, about 230.9 resident applicants per license.
- Residents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 24 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 2% drew.
- Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 19 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 0% drew.
Deadline
Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.
Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.
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