Mule deer buck with wide antlers grazing in grass on the National Elk Refuge, Wyoming

204-00 Deer B License Draw Odds, Montana

Deer b license, district 204-00 (mule), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Photo: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS Mountain Prairie), public domain. Photo credits

Fact	Value
Drawing	Deer b license, district 204-00 (mule)
2026 total quota	25
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	2
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	4 / 2
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	76 / 4
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	25 / 0
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	32.9% / 0.0%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	25

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	28	6	21.4%
1	2	24	8	33.3%
2	5	18	6	33.3%
3	10	5	4	80.0%
4	17	1	1	100.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-11 applicants a year), about 65 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 39%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 1.1 (+0.10 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	1	0	0.0%
1	2	3	0	0.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+0 applicants a year), about 4 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 0%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 0.6 (-0.19 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	25	110	22.7%	3	0.0%
2024	25	99	24.2%	4	25.0%
2025	25	95	26.3%	1	0.0%
2026	25	76	32.9%	4	0.0%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 76 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 25, about 3.0 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 21% drew; at 3 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 80% drew.

Deadline

Elk B, deer B, antelope and antelope B licenses: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Jun 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain). FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the June 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.