101-50 Deer Permit Draw Odds, Montana

Deer permit, district 101-50 (mule), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Fact	Value
Drawing	Deer permit, district 101-50 (mule)
2026 total quota	15
2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column)	1
2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident	3 / 1
2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident	419 / 25
2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident	13 / 1
2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident	3.1% / 4.0%
2026 total successful (all choices and pools)	15

Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	89	0	0.0%
1	2	79	0	0.0%
2	5	51	1	2.0%
3	10	57	0	0.0%
4	17	50	1	2.0%
5	26	25	2	8.0%
6	37	13	0	0.0%
7	50	18	2	11.1%
8	65	13	4	30.8%
9	82	9	2	22.2%
10	101	6	0	0.0%
11	122	1	0	0.0%
12	145	2	0	0.0%
13	170	1	1	100.0%
14	197	3	0	0.0%
16	257	1	0	0.0%
18	325	1	0	0.0%

Resident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+48 applicants a year), about 467 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 3%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 3.2 (+0.26 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 1 first-choice applicants, 1 drawn.

Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.

Bonus points	Chances in drawing	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
0	1	12	0	0.0%
1	2	5	0	0.0%
2	5	3	0	0.0%
3	10	1	0	0.0%
5	26	1	0	0.0%
8	65	1	0	0.0%
14	197	1	0	0.0%
15	226	1	1	100.0%

Nonresident outlook for 2027

If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (+3 applicants a year), about 28 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 4%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 2.4 (+0.15 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.

First-choice odds by year

First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).

Draw year	Quota	Res applicants	Res odds	NR applicants	NR odds
2023	15	276	4.7%	15	6.7%
2024	15	367	3.8%	18	0.0%
2025	15	383	3.4%	16	6.2%
2026	15	419	3.1%	25	4.0%

Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

In 2026, 419 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 15, about 27.9 resident applicants per license.
Residents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 10 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 0% drew.
Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 0% drew; at 1 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 0% drew.

Deadline

Deer and elk permits: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Apr 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain), with results in mid-April. FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the April 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.

Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.