007-03 Deer B License Draw Odds, Montana
Deer b license, district 007-03 (mule), from FWP's 2023 to 2026 drawing statistics. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.
Photo: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS Mountain Prairie), public domain. Photo credits
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| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Drawing | Deer b license, district 007-03 (mule) |
| 2026 total quota | 1,000 |
| 2026 nonresident cap (FWP's NR quota column) | 100 |
| 2026 landowner preference cap: resident / nonresident | 150 / 100 |
| 2026 first-choice applicants: resident / nonresident | 795 / 511 |
| 2026 drawn on first choice: resident / nonresident | 795 / 101 |
| 2026 first-choice odds: resident / nonresident | 100.0% / 19.8% |
| 2026 total successful (all choices and pools) | 1,000 |
Resident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice resident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 448 | 448 | 100.0% |
| 1 | 2 | 324 | 324 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 5 | 17 | 17 | 100.0% |
| 3 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 100.0% |
| 4 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 5 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Resident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-120 applicants a year), about 675 residents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 100%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 0.5 (+0.01 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: medium.
Landowner preference (residents, 2026): 3 first-choice applicants, 3 drawn.
Nonresident odds by bonus point (2026 drawing)
Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each bonus-point level who drew, from FWP's 2026 bonus point report. Each applicant gets one chance plus their points squared, so the draw favors high point holders without a hard cutoff. How Montana bonus points work.
| Bonus points | Chances in drawing | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 291 | 26 | 8.9% |
| 1 | 2 | 126 | 31 | 24.6% |
| 2 | 5 | 52 | 16 | 30.8% |
| 3 | 10 | 37 | 24 | 64.9% |
| 4 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 80.0% |
Nonresident outlook for 2027
If first-choice demand keeps its 2023 to 2026 trend (-279 applicants a year), about 232 nonresidents would apply in 2027; with the same number of first-choice licenses, overall first-choice odds would be about 43%. Average bonus points among first-choice applicants are trending to about 0.8 (+0.13 a year), a measure of point creep in a weighted draw. Confidence: low.
Landowner preference (nonresidents, 2026): 7 first-choice applicants, 7 drawn.
First-choice odds by year
First-choice draws over first-choice applicants in the regular drawing (landowner preference excluded).
| Draw year | Quota | Res applicants | Res odds | NR applicants | NR odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1,000 | 1,156 | 77.7% | 1,347 | 7.3% |
| 2024 | 1,000 | 867 | 100.0% | 636 | 14.9% |
| 2025 | 1,000 | 770 | 100.0% | 614 | 23.6% |
| 2026 | 1,000 | 795 | 100.0% | 511 | 19.8% |
Outlook method: see the top of the Montana points explainer and our forecast method. It is a trend line, not a promise.
Notes from TagCanyon
- In 2026, 795 residents listed this drawing first for a quota of 1,000, about 0.8 resident applicants per license.
- Licenses still went to second or third choices in 2026, so the drawing did not fill on first choice.
- Residents: at 0 bonus points 100% drew; at 2 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 100% drew.
- Nonresidents: at 0 bonus points 9% drew; at 4 points (the highest level with at least 5 applicants) 80% drew.
Deadline
Elk B, deer B, antelope and antelope B licenses: FWP's 2026 window ran Mar 1 to Jun 1, 2026 (11:45 p.m. Mountain). FWP has not posted 2027 dates yet; the June 1 deadline has held in recent years. FWP application and drawing dates.
Source: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP), 2026 Drawing Statistics reports (MyFWP drawing statistics, FWP application and drawing dates). Tables, outlooks and text are TagCanyon's own; FWP does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with FWP. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.
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