EM851O4R Elk Draw Odds, Colorado
Antlered (male) elk in GMU 851, 4th regular rifle season. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.
Photo: National Park Service (GrandTetonNPS), public domain. Photo credits
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| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Hunt | Antlered (male) elk, GMU 851, 4th regular rifle season |
| License list | A |
| 2026 quota | 0 |
| 2026 first-choice applicants (adult + youth, res + nonres) | 127,787 |
| 2026 licenses drawn: resident / nonresident (adult) | 4 / 1 |
| Share drawn by residents (incl. youth) | 80% |
| Nonresident cap / hybrid draw share | N/A / N/A |
| CPW drawn out at, 2026: resident | none drawn |
| CPW drawn out at, 2026: nonresident | none drawn |
Resident odds by preference point (2026 draw)
Share of first-choice resident applicants at each point level who drew this code in CPW's 2026 primary draw. Levels below the cut that still show draws come from CPW's hybrid or random share.
| Your points | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 21 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 20 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 19 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 18 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 17 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 16 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% |
| 14 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 13 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 12 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 11 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 10 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 9 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 8 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 7 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 6 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 40 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 39 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 38 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 35 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 34 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 33 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 32 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 31 | 36 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 30 | 50 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 29 | 65 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 28 | 86 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 27 | 110 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 26 | 117 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 25 | 144 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 24 | 147 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 23 | 154 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 22 | 190 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 21 | 199 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 20 | 246 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 19 | 271 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 18 | 277 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 17 | 319 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 16 | 372 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 15 | 367 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 14 | 433 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 13 | 554 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 12 | 675 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 11 | 721 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 10 | 933 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 9 | 1,168 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 8 | 1,447 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 7 | 1,519 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 6 | 1,897 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 5 | 2,270 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 4 | 2,766 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 3 | 3,249 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2 | 3,889 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 1 | 4,995 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 0 | 6,759 | 0 | 0.0% |
Resident point-creep forecast for 2027
Not enough years of data for a forecast.
Nonresident odds by preference point (2026 draw)
Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each point level who drew this code in CPW's 2026 primary draw. Levels below the cut that still show draws come from CPW's hybrid or random share.
| Your points | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| 26 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 25 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 23 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 22 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 21 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 15 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 7 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 5 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 36 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 35 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 34 | 21 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 33 | 41 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 32 | 62 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 31 | 113 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 30 | 142 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 29 | 183 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 28 | 211 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 27 | 272 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 26 | 253 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 25 | 303 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 24 | 334 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 23 | 289 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 22 | 341 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 21 | 459 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 20 | 551 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 19 | 529 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 18 | 633 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 17 | 586 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 16 | 695 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 15 | 699 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 14 | 753 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 13 | 781 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 12 | 870 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 11 | 1,117 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 10 | 1,204 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 9 | 1,604 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 8 | 3,105 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 7 | 3,524 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 6 | 3,983 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 5 | 5,309 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 4 | 6,496 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 3 | 8,169 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2 | 9,366 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 1 | 11,831 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 0 | 16,486 | 0 | 0.0% |
Nonresident point-creep forecast for 2027
Not enough years of data for a forecast.
Drawn-out history
The point level where CPW's preference draw ran out for adult applicants, each year.
| Draw year | Resident | Nonresident |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | none drawn | none drawn |
| 2024 | none drawn | none drawn |
| 2025 | none drawn | none drawn |
| 2026 | none drawn | none drawn |
Forecast method: how we forecast point creep. It is a trend line, not a promise.
Notes from TagCanyon
Few applicants in the reports we have.
Deadline
CPW's 2026 primary draw ran Mar 1 to Apr 7, 2026 (8 p.m. Mountain). CPW has not posted the 2027 dates yet; recent years closed on the first Tuesday of April. A current qualifying license is required before you apply. CPW primary draw page.
Source: Colorado Parks and Wildlife (CPW), 2026 Primary Draw Recap for elk (report, CPW elk statistics). Tables, forecasts and text are TagCanyon's own; CPW does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with CPW. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.
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