EF444O3R Elk Draw Odds, Colorado
Antlerless (female) elk in GMU 444, 3rd regular rifle season. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.
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| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Hunt | Antlerless (female) elk, GMU 444, 3rd regular rifle season |
| License list | B |
| 2026 quota | 150 |
| 2026 first-choice applicants (adult + youth, res + nonres) | 36 |
| 2026 licenses drawn: resident / nonresident (adult) | 49 / 6 |
| Share drawn by residents (incl. youth) | 89% |
| Nonresident cap / hybrid draw share | 25% / N/A |
| CPW drawn out at, 2026: resident | licenses left over |
| CPW drawn out at, 2026: nonresident | licenses left over |
Resident odds by preference point (2026 draw)
Share of first-choice resident applicants at each point level who drew this code in CPW's 2026 primary draw. Levels below the cut that still show draws come from CPW's hybrid or random share.
| Your points | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 1 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% |
| 0 | 25 | 25 | 100.0% |
Resident point-creep forecast for 2027
The trend points to a hunt that draws without points next year if quota and demand hold.
Nonresident odds by preference point (2026 draw)
Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each point level who drew this code in CPW's 2026 primary draw. Levels below the cut that still show draws come from CPW's hybrid or random share.
| Your points | 1st-choice applicants | Drawn | Odds at this level |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Nonresident point-creep forecast for 2027
The trend points to a hunt that draws without points next year if quota and demand hold.
Drawn-out history
The point level where CPW's preference draw ran out for adult applicants, each year.
| Draw year | Resident | Nonresident |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 5 pts (80% drawn at that level) | none drawn |
| 2024 | licenses left over | licenses left over |
| 2025 | licenses left over | licenses left over |
| 2026 | licenses left over | licenses left over |
Forecast method: how we forecast point creep. It is a trend line, not a promise.
Notes from TagCanyon
36 hunters put this code first for 150 licenses in 2026, about 0.2 first-choice applications per license. For residents, the points-to-draw index fell by about 5.2 points from 2023 to 2026. For nonresidents, the points-to-draw index held steady from 2024 to 2026. Nonresidents can receive at most 25% of the licenses in this code, so residents compete for the rest.
Deadline
CPW's 2026 primary draw ran Mar 1 to Apr 7, 2026 (8 p.m. Mountain). CPW has not posted the 2027 dates yet; recent years closed on the first Tuesday of April. A current qualifying license is required before you apply. CPW primary draw page.
Source: Colorado Parks and Wildlife (CPW), 2026 Primary Draw Recap for elk (report, CPW elk statistics). Tables, forecasts and text are TagCanyon's own; CPW does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with CPW. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.
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