Mule deer buck with wide antlers grazing in grass on the National Elk Refuge, Wyoming

DM040O4R Deer Draw Odds, Colorado

Antlered (male) deer in GMU 40, 4th regular rifle season. Jump to resident odds or nonresident odds.

Photo: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS Mountain Prairie), public domain. Photo credits

Fact	Value
Hunt	Antlered (male) deer, GMU 40, 4th regular rifle season
License list	A
2026 quota	10
2026 first-choice applicants (adult + youth, res + nonres)	173
2026 licenses drawn: resident / nonresident (adult)	7 / 1
Share drawn by residents (incl. youth)	88%
Nonresident cap / hybrid draw share	20% / 20%
CPW drawn out at, 2026: resident	13 pts (100% drawn at that level)
CPW drawn out at, 2026: nonresident	28 pts (100% drawn at that level)

Resident odds by preference point (2026 draw)

Share of first-choice resident applicants at each point level who drew this code in CPW's 2026 primary draw. Levels below the cut that still show draws come from CPW's hybrid or random share.

Your points	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
20	1	1	100.0%
16	2	2	100.0%
14	1	1	100.0%
13	2	2	100.0%
12	4	0	0.0%
11	3	0	0.0%
10	2	0	0.0%
9	6	0	0.0%
8	5	0	0.0%
7	4	0	0.0%
6	6	0	0.0%
5	5	1	20.0%
4	8	0	0.0%
3	15	0	0.0%
2	12	0	0.0%
1	14	0	0.0%
0	10	0	0.0%

Resident point-creep forecast for 2027

About 13 preference points is where the draw is likely to cut off next year, so applicants at 14 or more are likely to draw on first choice. Point creep has averaged +0.00 points a year (2023 to 2026). Confidence: medium.

Nonresident odds by preference point (2026 draw)

Share of first-choice nonresident applicants at each point level who drew this code in CPW's 2026 primary draw. Levels below the cut that still show draws come from CPW's hybrid or random share.

Your points	1st-choice applicants	Drawn	Odds at this level
28	1	1	100.0%
26	2	0	0.0%
23	1	0	0.0%
20	2	0	0.0%
17	1	0	0.0%
13	1	0	0.0%
12	2	0	0.0%
11	2	0	0.0%
10	4	0	0.0%
9	2	0	0.0%
8	2	0	0.0%
7	5	0	0.0%
6	7	0	0.0%
5	6	0	0.0%
4	1	0	0.0%
3	2	0	0.0%
2	3	0	0.0%
1	9	0	0.0%
0	5	0	0.0%

Nonresident point-creep forecast for 2027

About 31 preference points is where the draw is likely to cut off next year, so applicants at 32 or more are likely to draw on first choice. Point creep has averaged +3.00 points a year (2023 to 2026). Confidence: low.

Drawn-out history

The point level where CPW's preference draw ran out for adult applicants, each year.

Draw year	Resident	Nonresident
2023	13 pts (100% drawn at that level)	19 pts (100% drawn at that level)
2024	10 pts (67% drawn at that level)	17 pts (50% drawn at that level)
2025	13 pts (75% drawn at that level)	26 pts (100% drawn at that level)
2026	13 pts (100% drawn at that level)	28 pts (100% drawn at that level)

Forecast method: how we forecast point creep. It is a trend line, not a promise.

Notes from TagCanyon

173 hunters put this code first for 10 licenses in 2026, about 17.3 first-choice applications per license. For residents, the points-to-draw index held steady from 2023 to 2026. For nonresidents, the points-to-draw index rose by about 9.0 points from 2023 to 2026. Nonresidents can receive at most 20% of the licenses in this code, so residents compete for the rest.

Deadline

CPW's 2026 primary draw ran Mar 1 to Apr 7, 2026 (8 p.m. Mountain). CPW has not posted the 2027 dates yet; recent years closed on the first Tuesday of April. A current qualifying license is required before you apply. CPW primary draw page.

Source: Colorado Parks and Wildlife (CPW), 2026 Primary Draw Recap for deer (report, CPW deer statistics). Tables, forecasts and text are TagCanyon's own; CPW does not warrant or endorse them. Not affiliated with CPW. Retrieved Oct 17, 2026.